Anti-ageing drugs point to retiring at 85
February 20th, 2006 by RespiteMatch.com· Scientists predict sharp rise in life expectancy
· Living to 100 could be commonplace by 2030
by Ian Sample, science correspondent
Monday Feb. 20, 2006, London: Britain’s workforce will face a retirement age of 85 by 2050, as novel anti-ageing therapies trigger a sharp rise in life expectancy, scientists have claimed.
Researchers in California believe new drugs capable of slowing the ageing process will start to become available in rich countries in 2010, increasing lifespan by 20 years within the following two decades, suggesting that living to 100 years old will become commonplace with the ageing workforce employed in physically undemanding jobs.
Existing drugs already alleviate medical conditions which are generally regarded as an inevitable part of ageing. But new drugs will focus on reducing other harmful processes that bring about the cellular wear and tear of ageing.
One hope, to devise drugs which mop up or protect against the waste products our cells produce 24 hours a day, will lead to a sudden leap in lifespan, according to Shripad Tuljapurkar, an expert in population studies at Stanford University in California. If effective, the advances have the potential to render out of date the government’s rethink of retirement ages. Last year Lord Turner recommended delaying state retirement age to 68 or 69 by 2050.
Industrialised countries already enjoy a rising life expectancy, with age at death increasing by a year every five years in some countries. In Britain life expectancy at birth in 2004 was 77 for males and 81 for females, an increase since 1970 of eight years for men and six years for women.
In Britain today there are 1.5 pensioners for every five workers, but Professor Tuljapurkar’s calculations suggest that by 2050 the figure could rise to four pensioners for every five workers.
“If that happens, people are going to have to work to the age of 85,” he said.
Anti-ageing treatments will lead to a rise in age of death equivalent to a year every year, or five times the rate witnessed today, Prof Tuljapurkar told the American Association for the Advancement of Science meeting in St Louis.
The consequences will radically reshape world society, with richer nations facing a burgeoning older population while the poorest countries are left behind. “It’s entirely likely we’ll wind up with permanent global underclasses,” he said.
In Europe the effect of anti-ageing drugs would be to reverse the on-going population decline caused by low reproduction rates, but China and India could see their populations soar by 500m. “We could expect to see the world’s population top out at about 11 to 12 billion,” he said.
Prof Tuljapurkar calculated anti-ageing therapies could lead to a 17% increase in the US population to 440 million and a doubling of the proportion of pensioners.
However, the side effects of radical life-extending drugs might put people off, said Steven Austad of the University of Texas. “When people talk about anti-ageing therapies they often forget to explain that most of these treatments will have side effects, such as infertility or greater susceptibility to infectious disease.” It was crucial scientists developed treatments that ensured we remain healthy. “If you just keep extending people’s lives without ensuring you’re not just making sure more people will have Alzheimer’s, that’s going to be a real train wreck,” he said.
